Budget forecast gives hope — but no guarantees — to education advocates

Oregon Capitol building

Cherry blossoms frame the State Capitol building and the Capitol Mall, an Oregon State Park. Michael Lloyd/The Oregonian. LC- THE OREGONIAN

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For months now, public education advocates in Oregon — from paid lobbyists to PTA presidents – have been fixated on shaking loose an additional $400 million in state revenue to fund the next two years of K-12 school budgets, in addition to the $9.9 billion that state budget writers have already promised.

On Wednesday, with the announcement that the state had about $2 billion more in tax revenue to spend over the next two years than previously predicted, they saw an opening. But there are still no guarantees they will get that money.

For starters, there are a plethora of other demands on the state budget, from creating affordable housing, mental health treatment options and addiction recovery programs to remedying the shortage of public defenders that’s left people languishing in jail for months and ponying up for the massive upgrade of the aging Interstate 5 bridge.

Lawmakers and Gov. Tina Kotek have also pointed out that schools have access to other funding, including about $2 billion per biennium from the corporate activity taxes that feed the 2019 Student Success Act.

That money can only be used for certain initiatives — including to support student mental and behavioral health, for vocational education and for academic help for struggling students of color, students in special education and students who are just learning to speak English — but it does relieve some of the pressure on general fund dollars.

Districts also have until September 2024 to spend federal pandemic relief dollars. Additionally, districts get operating money from local property taxes and, particularly in the Portland metro area, have persuaded voters to pass local operating levies allowing them to pay for more educators. Another wildcard that may be giving pause to state budget writers: the statewide decline in public school enrollment. Oregon funds local schools based on how many pupils they serve.

As a result, even with a much rosier economic forecast than predicted, it might be hard for lawmakers to sign off on the $10.3 billion in state funding that school districts have made it plain that they need to avoid budget cuts, said Jim Green, the executive director of the Oregon School Boards Association.

“This is me reading the tea leaves,” Green said. “I think there is a willingness to give schools additional funding. But it will be very hard for them to get to where we think they need to be. I think they will get us above $10 billion.”

School districts are required to have budgets approved in June. Around the state, some have released “austerity” budgets based on the certainty of $9.9 billion, including Portland Public Schools, which has projected that it will employ 90 fewer educators by next September. Others have been more optimistic: the Hillsboro school district wrote its budget assuming that $10.3 billion would be available, although it has an alternative version for lower funding levels that could mean losing dozens of teaching positions or raising class sizes across the board.

Superintendents around the state have been said their operating costs need to account for inflation, from the gas that powers school buses to paying retiree benefits to the cost of living increases sought by local teachers’ unions. For their part, union leaders are making it plain that they’ve kept a close eye on educator strikes in Woodburn, Silver Falls and Oakland, Calif., that have resulted in districts giving ground on salary asks.

Kotek spoke to reporters Wednesday after the revenue forecast was released, and called the $9.9 billion currently in the budget for schools, “a strong place to start.” She said that she’d be pushing for focused additions, including her proposal to dedicate $120 million to early literacy teacher trainings and curriculums that stress learn-to-read methods based on how letter sounds can be blended into words.

Colleges and universities are also looking for a bigger slice of the pie given the new revenue forecast. Community colleges want to see a $136 million increase to their funding levels over last biennium and public universities have asked for an extra $129 million.

Higher education has often gotten short shrift in Salem, given that lawmakers are all too aware that college and universities have a supplemental funding stream via tuition dollars. This year has been no different: budget proposals from state leaders recommended funding colleges and universities anywhere from 2% to 4% below the state calculated “current service level” needed to maintain their operations. School leaders have said those funding levels would result in bigger tuition hikes for students and cuts to personnel.

University presidents sent a co-signed letter to legislative leadership on Wednesday calling for more investments in student scholarship funds and their collective bottom lines.

Lisa Skari, president of Mt. Hood Community College, said Wednesday’s news left her feeling “cautiously optimistic,” and she talked up the results she said would come from a beefed-up state investment.

A pre-COVID economic impact study commissioned by the Oregon Community College Association college found that for every $1 that taxpayers spent on Mt. Hood Community College, the school generated $2.50 in added tax revenue and public sector savings, Skari said.

One top priority for higher education advocates: A bump to the Oregon Opportunity Grant program, which helps cover college costs for low-income students. Kotek in her state budget proposal called for an extra $100 million for the opportunity grant. University leaders want to see the grant’s size double, to $400 million.

“By supporting investments in public education, you’re giving underrepresented students a chance to pursue their dreams while breaking down financial barriers to success,” University of Oregon senior Alonso Cruz said in testimony to state lawmakers earlier this month.

Cruz, who is a first-generation college student, said financial aid dollars were critical in his opportunity to graduate from the public university, which costs an estimated $29,000 per year for an in-state student. Oregon’s college and university costs are among the highest in the west. But the state’s allocation of financial aid per student trails the national average by nearly $300.

- Julia Silverman, jsilverman@oregonian.com, @jrlsilverman

- Sami Edge, sedge@oregonian.com

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